Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The sequence of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by current data. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are evidently unprepared to replace in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from Washington unfolds according to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing lives and land but avoiding a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their objective will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.