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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a straightforward formula. It frequently functions as a type of apology. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct path: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior leadership or simply the most shocking upset.

However this year's competition is fundamentally unique. The list of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners falling away and recent strugglers ascending together. Under an ordinary year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's competing with multiple other elite candidates.

Below is how the projected ballot ought to be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to showcase his otherworldly talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an attack designed entirely in the coach's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that creates wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has thrived. And when openings haven't been available, he's been capable to spin magic out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost every bet – rebuilding the trenches, highlighting the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has worked. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a coach who entered the building with the level of hype Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the coaching market. But when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a typical year!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has nailed the leadership stuff, which wasn't a certainty following his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced coaching staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the ideal staff cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted newbies. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting in theory, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a new job on the fly. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller could have ended the campaign in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has regressed since that time, dropping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, putting him just one place ahead of peers.

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