A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually be defeated but both parties has got important lessons to learn from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
